Pre-tourney Rankings
San Diego St.
Mountain West
2015-16
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.8#53
Expected Predictive Rating+9.3#61
Pace64.3#307
Improvement+2.7#72

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#178
First Shot-1.6#229
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#77
Layup/Dunks-1.4#246
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#131
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#284
Freethrows+2.1#45
Improvement+2.1#83

Defense
Total Defense+9.9#3
First Shot+8.9#1
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#71
Layups/Dunks+5.2#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#227
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#85
Freethrows+2.4#46
Improvement+0.6#148
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.3% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 26.3% n/a n/a
Average Seed 10.7 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four17.9% n/a n/a
First Round16.9% n/a n/a
Second Round6.0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen1.7% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.4% n/a n/a
Final Four0.1% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2015 121   Illinois St. W 71-60 82%     1 - 0 +11.0 -4.0 +14.4
  Nov 16, 2015 26   @ Utah L 76-81 24%     1 - 1 +12.1 +9.3 +2.8
  Nov 21, 2015 77   Arkansas Little Rock L 43-49 70%     1 - 2 -1.8 -19.0 +16.2
  Nov 23, 2015 185   East Carolina W 79-54 90%     2 - 2 +20.6 +7.9 +14.1
  Nov 26, 2015 23   California W 72-58 32%     3 - 2 +28.7 +7.4 +21.1
  Nov 27, 2015 6   West Virginia L 50-72 20%     3 - 3 -3.2 -16.5 +14.8
  Dec 01, 2015 108   @ Long Beach St. W 76-72 60%     4 - 3 +11.2 +11.6 -0.1
  Dec 06, 2015 263   San Diego L 48-53 92%     4 - 4 -11.3 -16.6 +4.5
  Dec 10, 2015 333   Nicholls St. W 84-47 98%     5 - 4 +21.2 -2.4 +19.6
  Dec 18, 2015 134   Grand Canyon L 45-52 84%     5 - 5 -7.8 -24.1 +15.7
  Dec 22, 2015 1   Kansas L 57-70 21%     5 - 6 +5.4 -1.5 +5.5
  Dec 30, 2015 164   Wyoming W 67-55 88%     6 - 6 1 - 0 +8.8 -5.0 +14.7
  Jan 02, 2016 133   @ Utah St. W 70-67 67%     7 - 6 2 - 0 +8.2 -1.0 +9.3
  Jan 06, 2016 248   San Jose St. W 77-62 94%     8 - 6 3 - 0 +7.0 +11.0 -2.5
  Jan 13, 2016 142   @ Colorado St. W 69-62 70%     9 - 6 4 - 0 +11.3 -3.4 +15.0
  Jan 16, 2016 94   @ Boise St. W 56-53 54%     10 - 6 5 - 0 +11.8 -10.1 +22.0
  Jan 19, 2016 102   Fresno St. W 73-67 OT 77%     11 - 6 6 - 0 +8.2 -1.6 +9.5
  Jan 23, 2016 133   Utah St. W 70-55 84%     12 - 6 7 - 0 +14.3 -0.8 +16.4
  Jan 26, 2016 141   @ Nevada W 57-54 69%     13 - 6 8 - 0 +7.7 -5.9 +13.7
  Jan 30, 2016 115   @ UNLV W 67-52 63%     14 - 6 9 - 0 +21.3 +6.1 +16.6
  Feb 02, 2016 142   Colorado St. W 69-67 85%     15 - 6 10 - 0 +0.5 -5.5 +6.0
  Feb 06, 2016 116   New Mexico W 78-71 OT 81%     16 - 6 11 - 0 +7.3 -1.3 +8.1
  Feb 10, 2016 102   @ Fresno St. L 57-58 57%     16 - 7 11 - 1 +7.0 -10.0 +17.0
  Feb 13, 2016 237   Air Force W 70-61 94%     17 - 7 12 - 1 +1.5 +5.9 -3.0
  Feb 21, 2016 248   @ San Jose St. W 78-56 86%     18 - 7 13 - 1 +19.9 +10.1 +10.6
  Feb 24, 2016 164   @ Wyoming W 73-61 75%     19 - 7 14 - 1 +14.6 +5.1 +10.5
  Feb 27, 2016 94   Boise St. L 63-66 74%     19 - 8 14 - 2 -0.1 -10.1 +10.1
  Mar 01, 2016 116   @ New Mexico W 83-56 64%     20 - 8 15 - 2 +33.1 +17.7 +17.3
  Mar 05, 2016 115   UNLV W 92-56 81%     21 - 8 16 - 2 +36.5 +12.8 +20.1
  Mar 10, 2016 133   Utah St. W 71-65 76%     22 - 8 +8.2 +1.9 +6.8
  Mar 11, 2016 141   Nevada W 67-55 78%     23 - 8 +13.8 -2.9 +16.1
  Mar 12, 2016 102   Fresno St. L 63-68 68%     23 - 9 +0.1 -5.9 +5.9
Projected Record 23.0 - 9.0 16.0 - 2.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 100.0    100.0
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 26.3% 26.3% 10.7 0.0 0.3 1.3 5.3 18.3 1.1 0.0 73.7 26.3%
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 26.3% 0.0% 26.3% 10.7 0.0 0.3 1.3 5.3 18.3 1.1 0.0 73.7 26.3%